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However, the further people look into the future and the more complex the systems whose behavior should be predict, the more unreliable becomes this type of planning. As uncertainty increases, there is a need for other planning tools to discover and study future business conditions in order to identify potential risks and prepare not for one but for many possible alternatives of the future.

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At the same time, people/companies can not study every possible version of the future. To cope with a difficult situation, it should be simplified. This is where the development of scenarios comes into play. With the help of skillfully developed scenarios, it is possible to reduce most of the uncertainties to a few most likely alternative directions, which together contain the most important uncertainties.

Forecasts for the form are usually quantitative. But sometimes they are presented in a script format and are more or less vivid descriptions of what should happen: what we have to reconcile and what will have to be overcome. This is also true of the vision. It is sometimes represented as the Future, but in a different sense. The vision describes a future worthy of striving for. But, like the forecast, the vision hides the risks. The vision is simple in nature. A vivid, convincing vision is simple enough and accessible for understanding, but nevertheless it is vague enough to entice many. For scenario projects, forecasts can be used as background information. At the same time, the adjusted strategic vision is often one of the results of the scenario planning process.

As we have seen, scenario planning is an effective tool for medium- and long-term strategic planning under uncertain conditions. It helps to sharpen the strategy, draw up action plans in the event of unexpected developments and adhere to the right direction in really important issues. But writing scripts is not just a planning tool. It is also an effective means of teaching. The habit of thinking scenarios helps to understand the logic of the development of events, identify driving forces, key factors, key figures and ability to exert any influence. Scenario planning is the planning of the future in an era when traditional strategic planning is outdated (Mintzberg, 1994).

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